geopolitical risks in 2021
The elections are likely to reignite grievances over living standards, public services, and corruption. 04 March 2021. For an optimal experience visit … Risk 1: 46*. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. The overall security situation is likely to worsen throughout 2021. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. RISK REPORT 2021. There is a heightened risk of violent anti-government protests across Iraq in the year ahead. Read More. ISA (International Strategic Analysis) is one of the world’s leading providers of international market analysis, economic forecasting and
The recently published 2021 Geostrategic Outlook presents analysis on the global political risk environment in 2021, with geopolitics of COVID-19 as the top risk. The increased tensions imply an elevated risk for energy and maritime logistics in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. These grievances were previously highlighted when authorities stopped paying public sector wages due to an economic crisis caused by low oil prices and financial mismanagement. Our aim is to help our clients navigate the complex and uncertain global, 24/7 digital world, enabling them to understand and manage their risk exposure and ensure operational resilience. The ceasefire deal could generate economic benefits to Armenia, relieving pressure on Pashinyan. GEOPOLITICAL AND CYBERSECURITY RISK WEEKLY BRIEF 6 APRIL 2021. 2021 Geopolitical Risk: The year ahead. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. Advanced Search. Subsequently, the government accused Bozizé of orchestrating a coup. Fearful of Tehran’s ambitions, Israel will likely continue to disrupt any potential rapprochement between the US and Iran. Though the agreement ensures that there will be no tariffs and quotas on trade in goods, independent bodies will monitor trade to ensure competition is fair, creating a notable regulatory burden. In November, militants then temporarily seized multiple settlements in Muidumbe district, executing at least 50 civilians in the area. Protests are likely to be violently suppressed by security forces and pro-government militias. 1. Uncertainty around sectors of the UK economy could stifle investment. The webinar was held January 26 2021. There is a risk of increased civil unrest in the year ahead following Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s agreement to a 9 November ceasefire with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region. PGI - Protection Group International Ltd is registered in England & Wales, reg. geopolitical tensions—will shape the effectiveness of our responses to the other key threats of the next decade: cyberattacks, weapons of mass destruction and, most notably, climate change. The reasons are probably a combination of factors that include the pandemic, the rise of the global grid of cyberspace, plus the payoff of years of planning and strategic moves by our adversaries. Resource nationalism surges in 2020, Covid-19 worsens outlook. The ceasefire resulted in Armenia ceding much of NK, including the region’s second largest city of Shusha, and surrounding districts to Azerbaijan. Scottish fishermen have already halted exports to the EU over criticisms of the new requirement for health certificates, customs declarations and other paperwork which add days to delivery times and hundreds of pounds in costs. With economic and social tensions having soared as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential for conflict and unrest in many parts of the world has risen substantially, and any further dislocations that result from the pandemic will certainly add to these tensions in the months ahead. Turkey has also suggested including Yerevan in a regional cooperation platform alongside Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Georgia if the country is perceived to pursue regional peace. Opposition parties lack widespread support because of their association with the unpopular former government of Serzh Sarkisian, which used lethal force to suppress dissent and was allegedly involved in the embezzlement of state funds. The administration of former US President Donald Trump has used sanctions, tariffs, and blacklists to target Beijing and its commercial interests. Militants will continue to attempt to seize key settlements and sustain attacks on civilians and security forces. Tehran-backed militia groups are also likely to continue abducting and assassinating anti-government activists, which may prompt retaliatory attacks on Iranian diplomatic missions and businesses. Before we look at the ten leading geopolitical risk levels for the coming year, it is interesting to look back at what we believed would be the ten biggest geopolitical risks of 2020. Protests declined in early 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic but returned as restrictions were lifted. You are cordially invited to a webinar on Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. There is an increased risk of civil unrest following the divisive November 2020 presidential election. As the year progresses, developed countries may struggle to meet vaccination timelines, while many developing countries could struggle to procure and administer enough vaccines due to insufficient financial resources and poor healthcare infrastructure. There is also a potential risk of unrest expanding to Kurdistan. A resurgence of protests is likely if Piñera or the elected constitutional convention stall in implementing sought-after reforms. The elections, and the economic fallout of COVID-19, are likely to exacerbate socioeconomic grievances and concerns about political corruption, increasing the risk of significant unrest. Quarterly Geopolitical Risk Forecast: Q1 2021. A coalition of six rebel groups loosely affiliated with former president Francois Bozizé threatened to march on the capital Bangui after Bozizé was barred from standing in the election. Geopolitical Risk. Continued tensions between Iran and the US and its allies are likely to pose a significant threat to regional security in the year ahead. Top 2021 Geopolitical Risks Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or commodities speculation or hedge trading. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. Government forces have been bolstered by the arrival of troops, military instructors and equipment from Rwanda and Russia, and – with support from 12,800 UN peacekeepers in the country – will likely be able to thwart any attempts to capture Bangui. The withdrawal agreement does not address services, which comprise 80 percent of the UK economy. Read the latest analysis on geopolitical issues today, covering political, economic, military, commodities, energy security & environmental issues. Trump and his allies in the Republican Party will likely continue to make unfounded allegations of electoral fraud to delegitimise Biden’s victory, fuelling further unrest and potential violence as the year progresses. The following is based on the panel session ‘Control Risks’ Geopolitical Keynotes for 2021’. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. 11 March 2021. 6 April 2021. Something is different in the geopolitical situation today. In an unprecedented demonstration of dissent, over 300 people rallied outside the Ministry of Culture on 27 November 2020 to protest the eviction of dissidents belonging to the San Isidro Movement, highlighting Cubans’ increasing willingness to organise public protests and demand greater freedoms. Cyber Tipping Point. We highlight three key areas for risk managers. For an optimal experience visit … The key discussion topics of the event will be: The geopolitical premium paid for the rouble remains significant. However, Biden’s domestic-focused, pro-multilateralism policy stance suggests that he is unlikely to take the same approach as the Trump administration. The clashes between government forces and the rebel coalition brings the February 2019 Khartoum peace agreement back to square one. Mass protests triggered by a rise in subway fares erupted in October 2019, but quickly developed into wider unrest over long-term socioeconomic grievances. Tehran will likely sustain aggressive foreign policies to increase pressure on the US ahead of potential renegotiations. Email me. Thus, growing tensions between China and the US will increase the risk of miscalculation and drive bilateral relations to new lows. Country risk is an important consideration in building a diversified investment portfolio in capital, private or bond markets, as well as currency or … EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Iran is likely to continue using Yemen’s Houthi rebels to target tankers, ports and other energy infrastructure within Saudi territory and maritime boundaries. ... 2021 … The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. As such, it is clear that there will be much to watch in terms of geopolitical risk in 2021. 2020’s sting in the tail: Political instability will rise in 88 countries. A change in the country’s top leadership in April increases the potential for political and economic reforms in the year ahead. The BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI) tracks the relative frequency of analyst reports and financial news stories associated with geopolitical risks. The election went ahead and President Faustin-Archange Touadera was re-elected with 53.9 percent of the vote. Pashinyan is likely to shuffle government ministers to consolidate his support base. MSNBC. The government controls as little as 20 percent of the country and, as a result, will likely remain powerless to impose its will outside of Bangui. However, there is a high risk of further disruption along the main trade routes into Bangui, which could lead to shortages of foodstuffs and other necessities in the capital. However, the pandemic has added another dimension to many of these flashpoints and has dramatically raised tensions in many parts of the world. If Correa’s preferred candidate, Andres Arauz, fails to win the presidency, or if the result is disputed, unrest among his supporters is likely to be high. The Political Risk Outlook 2021 contains expert research and analysis from senior members of our Country Risk Intelligence team, exploring the key global issues and country-level risks impacting multinational companies and investors today. While 2020 was the year COVID-19 took the world by storm, the pandemic’s medium- to long-term effects on the geopolitical environment will begin to crystalize in 2021. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. 2021 will be a year of uneven vaccine rollouts and uneven recovery. 21-01-2021. He is the Editor-in-Chief of KCL Geopolitical Risk Society Blog. The key discussion topics of the event will be: The series of unilateral actions will make it difficult for President Joe Biden to significantly change the downward trajectory of relations between China and the US. In late 2020, the group launched multiple cross border attacks in neighbouring Tanzania, which were the first such incidents since 2019. IE 11 is not supported. While there is an expectation that the incoming Biden Administration in Washington will attempt to alleviate tensions between the two giants, flashpoints such as Taiwan, Hong Kong and the … Archishman is a second-year BA International Relations student. UN peacekeepers have reportedly agreed to protect truck convoys bringing supplies from Douala to Bangui. In developed countries particularly, there are likely to be more anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protests. The uptick in militant activity will continue to pose a threat to Mali’s extractive industry, particularly its gold mining sector. Analysis. Under the ceasefire terms, Yerevan will build a corridor from NK’s capital Stepankert to Armenia, and from the Nakhchivan region to Azerbaijan. Trade operations with the EU, as well as between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, will require more paperwork, which could overburden local businesses and damage commerce. As geopolitical turbulence persists, these digital rights risks will force regulatory action in 2021. Reforms would likely be supported by the incoming US administration of Joe Biden, who has previously said he intends to reverse the Trump administration’s hard-line policies towards Cuba. In July 2020, Tehran blamed Tel Aviv for a fire at the Natanz nuclear facility, and for assassinating Iran’s top nuclear scientist in November 2020. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. Any tests or launches would increase the risk of miscalculation and escalation, which may lead to limited interstate conflict. If the UK lowers tax rates and diverges from EU regulations, which is more likely in the second half of the year, the business climate could become more appealing to investors. Geopolitical risk: US-China among flashpoints with highest probability of escalation 25 February 2021. ... 2021. The prime minister has faced rebellion from members of his coalition, resulting in the resignation of important ministers. Civil unrest in the south will continue to pose significant threats to the energy industries as protesters regularly attempt to block oil fields. Many Armenians view NK as symbolically and culturally important. Even though oil prices are expected to rise as worldwide lockdowns and travel bans are lifted, the economy is unlikely to recover in the near-term, meaning there is a high risk of election-related nationwide protests, particularly in Baghdad and the southern regions. The risks posed by North Korea’s weapons programme are likely to persist in 2021. Agility in decision-making, operations and strategy will be crucial for managing the fallout from COVID-19 and associated political risks … As we prepare to enter a new year, and leave behind a year that most people would like to forget, it is clear that the elevated levels of geopolitical risk that we have been facing in recent years will remain in place for the foreseeable future. The militants now largely control key routes into Palma, giving them further opportunities to expand northwards and eastwards. There is an increased risk of civil unrest due to the economic fallout of COVID-19. On 28 December, militants attacked Monjane town, just 5 km from the facility, forcing the energy company to evacuate staff. Top Risks 2021. The 16th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report analyses the risks from societal fractures—manifested through persistent and emerging risks to human health, rising unemployment, widening digital divides, youth disillusionment, and geopolitical fragmentation. In response to the Capitol riots, Twitter banned over 70,000 accounts linked to the QAnon conspiracy theory and Facebook blocked Trump’s account until Biden’s inauguration. Opposition parties will likely exploit anti-government sentiment to gain support and organise protests. Versus the euro, the rouble was steady at 90.23 EURRUBTN=MCX.. As such, here are our predictions for the ten leading geopolitical risks facing the world in the year 2021: As we prepare to say good-bye to one of the worst years, at least for much of the world, in recent history, it is important not to lose sight of the fact that geopolitical risk levels have continued to trend upwards over the past decade or more and are now at truly dangerous levels as we enter 2021. Coronavirus vaccine diplomacy adds “a new weapon” to the arsenal of competing powers, and is likely to cause older geopolitical tensions to resurface, according to Marsh’s 2021 political risk … 07967865, PGI - Protection Group International, 13-14 Angel Gate, London, England, EC1V 2PT, - PCI DSS Consulting and Compliance Services, - Investigations and corporate intelligence, Cyber security and Intelligence careers at PGI. Fasten your seatbelts, investors: Global threats to digital privacy, security, and freedom of expression and information are on the rise. The insurgency poses a considerable risk to Mozambique’s ambition to become a major energy producer, with the Total-operated project likely to be delayed due to deteriorating security conditions around Palma. Increased militant activity in the wider Sahel region has also led to warnings of a heightened risk to foreign nationals in West African coastal cities, such as Accra, Abidjan and Dakar. London signed a trade deal with the EU on 24 December and ended its withdrawal period on 1 January. The risk now is that a major Russian offensive against Ukraine splits the continent from the Anglo-American world. Low or negative growth and government stimulus packages will increase debt burdens substantially, putting pressure on countries to cut public spending, especially in emerging markets. JANUARY: FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER UNCONFIRMED January. - Geopolitical Risk Despite Tehran’s desire to get rid of crippling US sanctions, any renegotiation is unlikely in 2021 due to Washington’s domestic priorities and Iranian presidential elections in June. The risk of military conflict over Taiwan continues to grow, while Chinese foreign policy will become more aggressive. Militants could carry out road ambushes and kidnappings targeting employees near mining sites in southern and western Mali in order to deter further foreign investment. Long Covid and fragile global value chains. The top geopolitical risks for 2021, according to Eurasia Group. The Global Risks Report 2021. Risk 3: Climate: net zero meets G-Zero. However, the effectiveness of such efforts is likely to be limited, as groups such as QAnon and Proud Boys may just move to alternative platforms. The incident highlights the potential for further violent protests and unrest, amid increasing political polarisation. Protesters have denounced Pashinyan as a traitor and demanded his resignation. Keeping track of what’s happening around the world can be a complex task, so if you need support we can help. It could also reaffirm the commonly held view among these groups that mainstream media and social media platforms are censoring conservative viewpoints. Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of the year. That said, the challenges in relations between the two countries are structural and deeply rooted. This indicates that not only is the level of geopolitical risk dangerously high, but that the pandemic is likely to have actually increased the threat posed by a number of these issues and flashpoints, while at the same time creating new threats to global stability and security. But whatever the reasons, the world today is more complicated and more dangerous than the world of just a year ago, and in many cases … Israel is likely to conduct further covert sabotage activities to undermine, or as insurance for, future renegotiations between the US and Iran, which could prompt reprisal attacks from Tehran in the year ahead. Meanwhile, Pyongyang has continued to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities. The disparate rebel alliance will likely disintegrate in the coming months, leading to increased inter-rebel clashes as groups compete for control of territory outside of Bangui. There’s no single factor that raises the risk of a major disaster in cyberspace in … Webinar recording of KPMG and Eurasia Groups Top 10 Geopolitical Risks in 2021: Looking Ahead. “There is no escaping that the pandemic will be the number one driver of risk around the world, short and long term,” says Hecker. PGI's Geopolitical Intelligence team have put together a list of some of the key risks for 2021. But given the various competing global and regional challenges, Pyongyang would have to carry out a major provocation to successfully employ those tactics this year. Instead, the Biden administration is likely to refrain from taking any unilateral action against Beijing beyond January, which will briefly ease tensions with China. Confirmed cases and associated deaths are still rising in many countries, notably in Europe and North America, which is a trend that is unlikely to subside substantially in the first quarter of 2021. China is America's strongest competitor, a state capitalist, authoritarian, and techno-surveillance regime that is … Every year in January, Eurasia Group, KPMG's Global Alliance partner, publishes its Top Risks report which forecasts key geopolitical risks for the year ahead. President Sebastian Piñera responded by holding a referendum on whether to change the constitution, which was approved by voters. By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. Discontent over the details of the ceasefire could allow opposition parties to reshape their image and mount a stronger threat to Pashinyan. Ecuador experienced mass protests over unpopular gasoline subsidy cuts in October 2019, and the country’s 7 February general election could reignite social tensions stemming from the issue. Both groups have stepped up attacks in an effort to signal their superiority and influence throughout Mali and the wider Sahel region. These are the top geopolitical risks seen around the world, according to Eurasia Group. We highlight three key areas for risk managers. World of Worries: Political Risks in 2021. The risk is highest in countries which have experienced significant outbreaks of the virus, and where governments have implemented sweeping reforms to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic or cannot offset the fallout with substantial stimulus packages. While countries such as the United States and Germany will have new leadership in 2021, most of the world’s other leading actors will continue to be led by the same people that have overseen this rise in geopolitical risk levels, boding ill for the prospects for a lessening of geopolitical tensions around the world. It is little surprise that, following one of the most chaotic years in recent history, geopolitical risk levels entering the year 2021 are dangerously high. But governing won’t be … By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021 By Kaia Hubbard , Contributor Jan. 5, 2021, at 3:56 p.m. When he became president in 2018, Diaz-Canel promised to introduce reforms while maintaining the country’s communist system. Militants affiliated with the Islamic State (IS) group stepped up attacks in Cabo Delgado province in late 2020. One factor behind the escalation in violence is the internecine war between JNIM and ISGS. Negotiations could take several months and harm investor confidence. North Korea has previously relied on weapons tests to garner international attention and force negotiations with major powers, particularly the US. Required fields. In the Americas, the Brazilian heads of the army, navy, and air force jointly announced their resignations in a move that will increase pressure on President Jair Bolsanaro. Email me. States and organisations caught in this geopolitical battle will need to understand where the fault lines and key nuances in this competition lie to increase their own room for manoeuvre. Geopolitical risks will continue to evolve in 2021 to produce even more unpredictable events. Bilateral tensions are likely to move further from economic to security issues in 2021, with the main flashpoints being human rights concerns, the South China Sea and Taiwan. ... Top 10 op risks 2021: geopolitical risk Stimulus unwind, Covid nationalism and regime changes spell volatile operating environment. The Iranian navy is likely to continue harassing seaborne trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz. View Analysis. Militants have also significantly stepped up raids targeting islands off the coast of Cabo Delgado and, in November 2020, seized seven sailboats transporting food supplies from Pemba, demonstrating their growing maritime strategy and capabilities. There is an elevated risk of civil unrest in Chile, Ecuador and Peru in the year ahead due to upcoming national elections. Political risk is creating both challenges and opportunities for organisations. Armenia has suffered from high unemployment and a weak economy in recent years. In 2020, several cities saw Sadrist militiamen raiding protest camps and shooting protesters. The election will likely reignite tensions over the impeachment, particularly if it brings victory for Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of the imprisoned former president Alberto Fujimori who is herself being investigated for corruption. Or you may find a Geopolitical Risk Portal subscription helpful – we offer a 1-month free trial of the platform to allow you to test out the functionality. In August, the group occupied Mocimboa da Praia, subsequently using the strategically important port town as a base from which to expand operations. This 2-hour virtual event will discuss short and long-term political and geopolitical risks outlining how Covid-19 will exacerbate pre-existing domestic tensions in many countries, while accelerating the trend of deglobalisation and pushing the US and China towards a more confrontational path. Early general elections planned for 6 June are likely to reignite civil unrest. Despite the development of vaccines, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to have a profound impact on public health worldwide. Ian Bremmer releases top geopolitical risks for 2021. Pace of interventionism rising sharply, miners in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America face biggest increases in risk. In the Global Risks Report 2021, we share the results of the latest Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), Businesses risk a disorderly shakeout which can exclude large cohorts of workers and companies … Political risks and violence returns to the top 10 of the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time since 2018, reflecting the fact that civil unrest incidents such as protests and riots now challenge terrorism as the main political risk exposure for companies. We calculate the frequency of words that relate to geopolitical risk, adjust for positive and negative sentiment in the text of … Geopolitical risks will continue to evolve in 2021 to produce even more unpredictable events. On 19 April, Raul Castro will step down as the Communist Party’s First Secretary to make way for President Miguel Diaz-Canel, who will become the first person outside the Castro family to preside over Cuba in over 60 years. Crude Oil Prices Choppy, Rising Geopolitical Risks to Spark Oil Volatility 2021-04-07 10:30:00 Justin McQueen , Analyst Crude Oil Price Analysis & News The fallout from Trump’s impeachment and other potential legal proceedings will likely further exacerbate tensions. The threat posed by political violence in the Central African Republic (CAR) has increased in the wake of the presidential election in December 2020. Today we release our Fall 2020 Investor Update . The risks were recently highlighted by leader Kim Jong-un’s threat to further expand North Korea’s weapons modernisation programme and hostile remarks towards South Korea and the US at a meeting of the Workers’ Party congress in Pyongyang, which is the country’s largest political event. From ongoing COVID-19 challenges to election-related unrest across South America, these are the areas that our Analysts have identified as potentially having significant impact on the economy and business operations. Mass protests broke out in November 2020 after Congress impeached popular former president Martin Vizcarra on alleged corruption charges.